After a seven-game road trip that began promisingly with a series win at Yankee Stadium against MLB’s top team at the time but ended poorly with a series loss in St. Louis and a makeup game loss to the White Sox, the Braves will return home to try to secure a winning month in a three-game series with the Pirates. At 12-12, the Braves need to win the series for their second winning month of the year; if they lose two out of three games, June will replicate May’s 13-14 record.
The Braves have experienced some ups and downs in recent weeks. They won three consecutive series at one point, part of a broader 8-2 run. During this stretch, from June 13 to June 23, their bats achieved a .349 wOBA with a .327 xwOBA. For the season, the Braves have a .327 xwOBA but only a .313 wOBA. In this span, they had 29 barrels, with 20 turning into hits and 16 into home runs. These rates, 69% and 55% respectively, are higher than their season rates of 61% and 37%, explaining their streak of good play. League averages are 68% and 45%, and the Braves’ poor performance on barrels in St. Louis and Chicago over the last four games helps explain why their offense seems to be underperforming again.
For the Pirates, June has been positive after a less-than-stellar start to the year. Now 39-41, they’ve hovered around the .500 mark for the last two months without much consistency. They had a good stretch at the beginning of June, taking series from the Dodgers and Twins, but haven’t built on it significantly. They are 5-2 in fully played June series, with no sweeps, making them 13-10 for the month so far.
On the season, the Pirates have one of MLB’s worst position-player units, totaling just 2.2 fWAR, struggling both offensively and defensively. Their pitching staff has been better, albeit still average. The offense has improved slightly in June, and the pitching has excelled thanks to the dynamic duo of Paul Skenes and Mitch Keller, which explains their above .500 record for the month.
